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Soft-ish landing (with luck)
The Bank of England’s hike accompanied by the forecast of a recession next year should be a warning for central banks elsewhere in their quest for a “painless tightening”.
E. Macron’s second mandate will likely start with the prolongation of the Keynesian/interventionist stance of the last 2 years, although the financial room for manoeuvre is smaller.
The IFO survey’s forward-looking components in manufacturing are now below the levels seen during the “mini recession” of 2012-2013.
It's starting to show
While market stress has receded last week, hurdles on the road to a settlement in Ukraine should not be underestimated.
Augmenting the Bernanke Doctrine
The “Bernanke doctrine” on how central banks should deal with energy price shocks should be augmented by taking the fiscal stance in consideration.
War made the State
The consequences of the war in Ukraine will be unequal across social groups in Europe.
The EU has very significantly stepped up its reaction to the war in Ukraine.
Money, it's a gas
We look at the implications for the Euro area of higher natural gas prices in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.
Lagarde sent the ECB on a course consistent with a rate lift-off this year. We expect it in December, but it could come as early as September.